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High definition on disk is (still) nearly ready
2005.11.21 — Business | Technology | by Andrew Cole
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HD DVD [Source] |
The DVD market has been slowing down for some time now. I know that in my case, I've made a conscious decision to avoid buying many DVDs in anticipation of a high definition format planned for 2006. There are two formats hoping to win the market: HD DVD and Blu-ray.
Both new standards are based on blue laser technology instead of DVD's red laser technology. That allows them to pack more data into the same space, which means a disk the size of a DVD can hold upwards of 30 GB of data instead of DVD's 4.7 GB.
That's enough space for hours of high definition video and audio, along with the kind of extras we've all grown used to. Both have backing from several major studios, with some studios clearly willing to support both, or either, or—for that matter—neither. They just want something, anything, new and exciting.
HD DVD
HD DVD is poised to break first, with players and movies likely to become available by January.... |
HD DVD is poised to break first, with players and movies likely to become available by January, altho at high prices. It's a Toshiba technology, developed with the blessing of the DVD Forum, the standards group, and promises to be backward compatible, so your current DVDs will play on HD DVD machines.
HD DVDs can hold 15 GB on each layer, with 30 GB dual-layer disks demonstrated (and triple-layer disks in the works). That's similar to DVDs, and HD DVDs are very similar to DVDs in general. Manufacturing costs should stay about the same as for DVDs, with a fairly easy conversion of manufacturing facilities.
HD DVD has a reported 35 movies ready for market.
Blu-ray
Blu-ray disks (BDs) can hold 25 GB on each layer, but Sony has demonstrated 50 GB dual-layer disks and is even researching 4- and 8-layer disks. |
Blu-ray is lagging behind HD DVD, but promises more. Sony developed it without working with the DVD Forum, and it has yet to fully prove itself. It's unlikely to be fully compatible with DVDs, so players may be more expensive (to include a red laser).
Blu-ray disks (BDs) can hold 25 GB on each layer, but Sony has demonstrated 50 GB dual-layer disks and is even researching 4- and 8-layer disks. Critics say this is unproven hype, since Sony has been saying it for a year, but even a 20 GB advantage is huge.
Blu-ray does have another significant advantage: a special coating that promises to make the disks tougher and less susceptible to scratches and dust. That would be a big favor to the rental industry, which suffers a lot of attrition in its DVD rentals.
Blu-ray has only one movie ready for market... and for some reason it's Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle.
Capacity is a bit of a mystery
Oddly, altho all sources agree on the data capacity of HD DVDs and Blu-ray disks, estimates of high-definition video capacity are all over the map.
Some sources say dual-layer HD DVDs will hold 8 hours of HD video, but this is likely a
Some sources say dual-layer BDs will hold 4 hours of HD video... or 8 hours.
Capacity is an issue for studios, since many DVD titles today are two- or even four-disk boxed sets. |
Capacity is an issue for studios, since many DVD titles today are two- or even four-disk boxed sets. DVDs hold 3.5 hours of standard-def video, which means that long movies are pushing the edge of the envelope and need a second disk to hold extras. Television series need several disks to hold a season's worth of episodes: 9 hours for 22 half-hour eps; 18 hours for 22 hour-long eps (lack of commercials accounts for the time difference).
The Lord of the Rings: Extended Edition movies each run 4 hours and so currently need two disks each. Having room for all that plus extras in high definition on one disk would be a significant cost savings but, even more important, would be preferred by the consumer.
Other factors that have been touted, such as hybrid (HD and SD) disks, re-writability and copy management, are unlikely to tip the balance, since the disks themselves are rather cheap and it would take a very, very bad choice to turn consumers away from high-def disks.
After all, few consumers try to copy (or "back up") their DVDs, so they won't expect the next generation to allow it either. If high-def disks do allow consumers to copy their movies to, say, a giant iPod or Tivo in the living room, it will be a bonus, but an unexpected one, and one that only geeks will make use of.
Is there a winner?
Sony and Toshiba were reportedly in talks back in April to share technology and merge their efforts to produce a single format, but they seem set now on a very high stakes wrestling match.
Both have the backing of plenty of big media and computer companies, but those loyalties could shift at any time. It wouldn't take much for a loyal backer to suddenly announce they they'll support both formats... by which they'd really mean that they'd produce a few disks in each, then go full on whichever won out in the marketplace.
One very real factor will be cost to the consumer. If Blu-ray debuts with well-priced players and disks while HD DVD is still charging a premium, consumers are likely to flock to it. But if it debuts at a premium after HD DVD has recouped enough costs to get the price down to the level of the ordinary consumer, Blu-ray is likely to suffer the fate of Betamax or, at best, laserdisc.
But Sony seems unlkely to repeat its Betamax mistake. That wound cut deep.
f e e d b a c k
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